The challenge in controlling TB in Africa is attributed to poverty, drug-resistant tuberculosis, endemic of the causative agents, and inefficient diagnostic methods, among others. The burden of tuberculosis (TB) poses a major public health challenge especially among developing countries in terms of its spread. Public health attention must also be given to districts with a potentially higher risk of experiencing endemic TB even though the estimates of the overall epidemic thresholds from our SEIR model suggested that the Ashanti Region as a whole had herd immunity against TB infection. It was recommended that the Ghana Health Service should find a good mechanism to detect TB in the early stages of infection in the region. Numerical simulations were performed to validate the overall infection rate, basic reproductive number, herd immunity threshold, and Malthusian parameter based on bootstrapping, jackknife, and Latin Hypercube sampling schemes. Branching process approximation was used to derive explicit forms of relevant epidemiological quantities of the deterministic SEIR model for stability analysis of equilibrium points. The effect of introducing treatment at the incubation stage of TB transmission was also investigated, and it was discovered that treatment introduced at the exposed stage decreased the spread of TB. It predicted tuberculosis dying out in ten of twelve high-burden districts in the Ashanti Region, but an outbreak in Obuasi municipal and Amansie West district. The deterministic model showed success in modelling TB infection in the region to the transmission dynamics of the stochastic SEIR model over time. In an attempt to model tuberculosis (TB) dynamics among high-burden districts in the Ashanti Region of Ghana, the SEIR epidemic model with demography was employed within both deterministic and stochastic settings for comparison purposes.
LATIN HYPERCUBE SAMPLING AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES FULL
Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.Mathematical models can aid in elucidating the spread of infectious disease dynamics within a given population over time. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. Copyright of BMC Veterinary Research is the property of BioMed Central and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission.Conclusions: All the identification of the spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic and the risk analysis model would give a further understanding of the dynamics of disease transmission and help to design corresponding measures to minimize the catastrophic consequences of potential ASFV introduction. The Latin hypercube sampling results show that the probability is relatively low (the average value is 4.577 × 10− 7). And then, a quantitative model was constructed to analyse the risk of releasing African swine fever virus (ASFV) from Poland by the legal export of pork and pork products. Through space-time scan statistical analysis, the 3 clusters major of wild boar cases involve longer time spans and larger radii, while the other five with higher relative risks involved in domestic pigs. Results: The results show that the center of the epidemic moved gradually towards the southwest, and the distribution of the epidemic changed from south-north to east-west. In this study, the Geographic Information System (GIS) spatial analysis was applied to analyze the distribution, dispersion of the epidemic and clustering of ASF in Poland. ASF poses a potential threat to the world pig industry, due to the lack of vaccines and treatments. Abstract: Background: African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of pigs.